High Production Costs Could Weigh on the Ag Economy Through 2024, New Survey of Economists Finds

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The Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor unveils helpful insights on the state of U.S. agriculture. Economists forecast a downward trend in the financial health of the sector, driven by high production costs, global competition, and more. With wide-ranging views on 2023 crop yields and commodity prices, the survey reveals a mixed outlook on livestock and a watchful eye on potential recession threats:

“Main Takeaways from the June Survey
Highlights from the first Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor include:

  • The perceived financial health of U.S. agriculture is trending lower and is expected to continue to decline over the next 12 months.
  • Production costs, global competition, geopolitical risks, drought and demand headwinds are among the main drivers.
  • The majority of agricultural economists expect farm income to drift lower, with some expecting levels to land closer to the five-year average in 2024.
  • High production expenses are the biggest obstacle in 2023.
  • 2023 crop yield estimates vary widely among the economists surveyed.
  • Economists expect crop prices to drift lower in 2023 and 2024.
  • Beef cow supplies are forecast to continue to decline this year.

A Current and Future Snapshot of the Agriculture Economy

The monitor shows the perceived financial health of U.S. agriculture has moved slightly lower over the past year, and economists expect that trend to continue over the next 12 months.”

To learn more: Read the full article by Tyne Morgan

Poor Air Quality from Wildfire Smoke can put Livestock at Risk

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The wildfire smoke drifting from Canada into the United States has prompted a call to action for those with underlying lung conditions or asthma, including children and the elderly, to minimize outdoor exposure. But this warning extends beyond human health; it’s a risk to our animals, too. Rhonda Brooks writes

“Look for the following signs of possible smoke or dust irritation in animals, including:
•    Coughing or gagging
•    Difficulty breathing, including open mouth breathing and increased noise when breathing
•    Eye irritation and excessive watering
•    Inflammation of throat or mouth
•    Nasal discharge
•    Asthma-like symptoms
•    Increased breathing rate
•    Fatigue or weakness
•    Disorientation or stumbling
•    Reduced appetite and/or thirst

[…]

Unhealthy levels of pollutants from the smoke spread across states in those regions including most of Michigan and Wisconsin and parts of Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio, according to tracker AirNow.gov.”

To Learn More, Read the full article by Rhonda Brooks

Tips On How To Increase Dairy Farm Cash Flow

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Navigating the turbulent tides of the dairy farming industry can feel overwhelming, especially as financial pressures mount and the future remains uncertain. The challenges are real, but so are some solutions. Pauly Paul writes in his article in AGProud:

“Borrowing money to pay the bills? If that is you, you are not alone. As a dairy consultant who helps farmers increase income and efficiencies and reduce their expenses, these are the phone calls that have been coming in recently as worries loom over what is to come in 2023.

But even when the dairy farmer can’t see it, I believe there is always a way to uncover opportunities to increase cash flow and cut back on unnecessary expenses. In fact, there is one dairy in particular that our team has successfully turned around from borrowing money to pay the bills to being cash ahead, and they continue to hold this position in spite of the current milk markets, inflation and rising input costs.”

Read the full article by Pauly Paul

What are the 6 freedoms of a cow?

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“Focusing on the six freedoms of a cow proves to be beneficial for increasing your dairy’s return on investment (ROI). The six freedoms of a cow outlined by a dairy farming training organization are space, rest, water, air, light and feed. These freedoms have aligned benchmarking goals to help producers realize higher returns on current and future farm investments.”

“In the U.S., a dairy cow on average stays in the herd for 2.8 lactations. This means many cows are culled before they reach their highest and most productive lactation, typically achieved during the fifth or sixth lactation. Reasons for culling include reproduction, mobility and illness. Also bringing down the average is a longer-term trend for promoting genetic superiority, which involved incorporating younger animals into herds faster. Slowing this trend down are higher rearing costs for replacements and economics.”

Read the full article by Amelie Mainville with Progressive Dairy

All Eyes on the Milk Price

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“Within dairy specifically, all eyes are on the milk price into the coming months, with values falling slowly but steadily recently. This price pressure, coupled with still high cost of production, will mean that some dairy farmers might struggle to achieve profitability this year. Data shows that cows’ numbers began to contract in November and December, and if margins remain tight, Rabobank expects additional declines in the herd size.”

“Even if cow numbers contract, Rabobank still expects stronger milk supplies this year versus 2022, likely climbing around 1% during this calendar year. This additional volume, coupled with a return to stronger production in the EU as well, means that demand will need to keep pace to avoid further milk price declines.” –

Read the full article by Lucas Fuess with Dairy Herd Management

Costs Hit Organic Livestock Farmers

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Organic dairy and other livestock farmers are seeking emergency federal aid as they grapple with skyrocketing organic feed costs, steep fuel and utility expenses as well as the consequences of drought in many parts of the country.

Two dozen U.S. senators and representatives wrote to U.S. Agriculture Department Secretary Tom Vilsack asking for emergency assistance for these farms. National and regional organic farming groups have also reached out to the department and the heads of the congressional committees.

Read the full article by Lisa Rathke with Wisconsin State Farmer

Straw Is The Farm’s Multi-tool

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“Straw originates as a by-product following small grain harvest. It’s used for both bedding and as a feed ingredient. As a feed ingredient, straw is multifaceted, with nutritionists bringing straw into diets for both functional fiber and low-energy nutritional aspects. Straw also can bring anti-nutritional factors, beyond what the eyes can see.”

Read the full article by John Goeser, Rock River Lab with Hoard’s Dairyman

Should you delay oral calcium bolus supplementation for fresh cows?

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“Subclinical hypocalcemia (SCH) is an invisible threat to both the dairy cow and producer. As nearly 45 percent of multiparous cows experience SCH during the early lactation period, producers can implement dietary strategies such as feeding negative dietary cation-anion difference (DCAD) rations in the late dry period or administering prophylactic calcium treatments to fresh cows to minimize the risk of SCH.”

“The results of our study support previous reports suggesting that oral calcium supplementation benefits a subgroup of cows. Taking this into consideration, administering calcium boluses to high-producing, lame, or older cows may be financially advantageous for producers as blanket treating every cow is costly and the financial gains from improved milk production are only realized in select groups.”

Read the full article by Claira Seely and Jessica McArt with Progressive Dairy

Methionine and omega-3 fatty acid feeding for transition cows.

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“Our study shows that feeding transition cows a diet adequate in Met and with calcium salts enriched in n3 FAs can enhance lactation performance by increasing energy-corrected milk yield over the first four weeks of lactation and improve liver function by altering liver methyl donor metabolism.”

Read the full article by Joseph McFadden and Tanya France with Progressive Dairy

Five Ways to Dry Off Cows More Comfortably

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1. Use an appropriate dry cow antibiotic.
2. A teat sealant is a must no matter your dry cow antibiotic protocol.
3. Ensure high-producing cows are ready to be dried off.
4. Vaccinate. Cows vaccinated during the dry period are more likely to enter the next lactation with a robust immune system to fight off infectious disease threats.
5. Work with your veterinarian. The right dry-off program varies from farm to farm.

Read the full article by Boehringer Ingelheim Animal Health with Wisconsin State Farmer

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